Steven: The UK has reached another record temperature today. it is around 35 degrees Celsius, which is very unusual here. I’ll do my best not to pass out and to stay conscious throughout our conversation. How are things where you are? Is everything okay? Alex: The temperature here is better. The hottest point this summer was about 37 degrees. That lasted for roughly two days, and then the temperature dropped, so it is fine now. Steven: I’m very glad to hear that. Today, I thought we could discuss independence, particularly independence from one’s family. I would like to know whether the process differs between China and the UK. In my culture, the path is usually clearly defined: you grow up at home, finish school, attend university, and are then expected to leave the family home and begin an independent life.
STEVE：我挺好的，谢谢。英国今天又创下了高温纪录。今天大约有35摄氏度，这对英国来说很少见。我会尽量不被热晕，努力保持清醒，完成这次对话。你那边怎么样？一切都好吗？ ALEX：我这里的温度好一些。今年夏天最热的时候大约是37摄氏度，持续了两天，后来就降下来了，现在还可以。 STEVE：听到这个我很高兴。今天我想谈谈“独立”，尤其是一个人如何从原生家庭中独立出来。我想知道中国与英国是否存在差异。在我的文化里，这个过程通常很明确：在家里长大、完成中学、上大学，随后人们便期待你离开家庭，开始独立生活。
02 / 28
STEVE：家人当然仍会在经济、情感或其他方面支持你，但大家通常认为，你已经开始了离家的生活，接下来应当找工作并建立自己的家庭。不过，过去十年左右，这种模式有所变化。住房危机使买房变得极其困难，很多人不得不搬回父母家，并且比过去更依赖父母的支持。随着生活成本上涨，真正独立变得越来越难。你觉得这种变化怎么样？中国的情况相同，还是有所不同？ ALEX：你描述的英国独立问题与住房危机、移民以及经济发展放缓有关，对吗？过去几十年间，情况发生了变化，一些人搬回父母家并获得经济支持，因此现在的“独立”已经不像过去那样了。中国的情况很不一样，而近十年最明显、最快速的变化，是房地产市场的下跌。
Steven: Of course, your family may still support you financially, emotionally, or in any other way you need. However, the expectation is that you have begun a life away from home and will now find a job and perhaps start a family of your own. That pattern has changed somewhat over the past decade. Because of the housing crisis, buying a home has become extremely difficult. Many people move back into their parents’ homes and depend on their support more than people seemed to in the past. As living costs rise, genuine independence becomes harder. What do you think about that? Is the situation similar in China, or is it different? Alex: The situation you described in the UK seems connected to the housing crisis, immigration, and slower economic development, right? Things have changed over recent decades. Some people return to their parents’ homes and receive financial help, so independence no longer means exactly what it did before. China is quite different. The fastest and most significant change over the past ten years has been the decline of the real-estate market.
03 / 28
ALEX：中国房地产市场过去曾处于高位，也发生过许多事情。以我居住的城市为例，我几年前买的一套公寓当时大约值40万元人民币，约合5万美元；现在它的价值已经跌到约4万美元。这是一次很快的下跌。上海、北京和广州也有类似情况，上海市中心一些住宅的价格大约下降了40%。我认为背后的原因是政府政策。中国近年把大量资金投入基础设施、人工智能和机器人等领域，而不再投入房地产，目的是避免日本或香港曾经经历的风险。日本房地产泡沫破裂后出现了长达约30年的下行趋势，因此中国政府一开始就主动压低了房地产市场的价格。 STEVE：明白了。 ALEX：最近我还发现了ChatGPT的一个新功能，也就是日程安排功能。我不知道你是否注意到了。
Alex: China’s real-estate market used to be extremely expensive, and many things happened during that period. I can give you an example from the city where I lived. An apartment I bought several years ago was worth about 400,000 yuan, or roughly 50,000 US dollars. Its value has now fallen to about 40,000 dollars. That is a rapid decline. The same thing has happened in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou. In central Shanghai, the price of some apartments or houses has dropped by around 40 percent. I believe government policy is behind this change. In recent years, China has invested heavily in infrastructure, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other sectors instead of real estate, partly to avoid the risks experienced by Japan or Hong Kong. Japan went through a decline lasting about thirty years after its property bubble collapsed, so the Chinese government initially took deliberate steps to push property prices down. Steven: I see. Alex: Recently, I also discovered ChatGPT’s scheduling feature. I’m not sure whether you have noticed it.
04 / 28
STEVE：我见过这个功能。 ALEX：它真的很有意思。比如，你可以安排一项任务，让它分析中国和加拿大的社会趋势。它会搜索信息、进行分析，然后提供关于最近几天、几周或几个月趋势的报告。其中一个主要趋势就是房地产市场下滑。这意味着人们不必再把那么多钱花在房子或公寓上，而可以把钱用于旅行、消费、餐饮或其他方面，不再只投资房地产。另一个与英国不同的现象是移民。中国没有同样的移民问题，而其中的主要原因——说起来有些讽刺——是宣传。中国的国家宣传体系会有针对性地向人们灌输很多印象。比如，当人们看到印度人移民英国并带来不同的生活习惯时，有人会批评他们，也有人会为他们辩护，认为社会应当尊重文化差异，接受他们提供的廉价劳动力，并承认他们对社会的贡献。
Steven: I have seen that feature. Alex: It is very interesting. For example, you can schedule a task asking it to analyze social trends in China and Canada. It will search for information, analyse it, and produce a report on trends from the past few days, weeks, or months. One major trend is the decline of the real-estate market. This means people no longer need to spend so much money on houses or apartments. Instead, they can spend more on travel, consumer goods, restaurants, and other parts of life rather than investing everything in property. Another phenomenon that differs from the UK is immigration. China does not face the same immigration issue, and the main reason—ironically—is propaganda. China’s national propaganda system gives people many carefully directed impressions. For example, when people see Indians immigrating to the UK and bringing different living habits, some criticise them, while others defend them. Those defenders may say that society should tolerate cultural differences, accept the inexpensive labour immigrants provide, and recognise their contribution to society.
05 / 28
ALEX：在英国，反移民态度可能会被等同于种族主义，于是左派与右派不断争论。左派举着民主和人权的旗帜，右派则强调民族主义。但中国只有一种声音，也就是政府的声音。政府认为自己由精英组成：这些人毕业于名校，或者来自条件优越的家庭，并相信自己代表全国人民的想法。因此，政府把社交媒体和宣传当作一种工具，甚至是一种武器，向公众发布和传递大量信息。它可能会直接声称，印度对国家安全构成威胁，印度人的不良习惯会伤害社会，而他们的群体凝聚方式会给企业和组织带来问题。因此，政府可以给他们旅游签证，却不给工作签证，也不会完全容许他们长期居住。 STEVE：明白。 ALEX：加拿大与中国还有另一个不同之处。很多印度人来到加拿大时没有工作签证，而是持旅游签证入境。
Alex: In the UK, anti-immigration attitudes may be equated with racism, so the left and the right argue constantly. The left carries the banners of democracy and human rights, while the right emphasizes nationalism. In China, however, there is only one voice: the government’s. The government sees itself as made up of elite people who graduated from famous universities or come from high-status families and who believe they represent the nation’s ideas. It therefore uses social media and propaganda as tools—perhaps even as weapons—to publish and distribute large amounts of information. It may directly claim that India threatens national security, that certain habits of Indian people would damage society, and that their strong group unity could cause problems for companies and organizations. As a result, the government may grant them tourist visas but not work visas, and it will not fully permit them to live there permanently. Steven: I understand. Alex: There is another difference between Canada and China. Many Indians who come to Canada do not have work visas; they enter on tourist visas.
06 / 28
ALEX：这些人可能在餐馆或工厂工作，并领取现金工资，所以不用缴税。即使合法工作每小时能赚15到18加元，现金工作只有10到12加元，他们也可能愿意接受，因为这仍然远高于在印度的收入。他们在加拿大一天赚的钱，可能相当于在印度一个月、三个月，甚至半年的收入。因此，这对他们来说仍然可以接受。加拿大与中国在政策执行力度上也完全不同。在中国，如果一家餐馆里有一个印度人在工作，当地警方可能一两天内就会注意到，并直接检查他或她持有的是旅游签证还是工作许可。可是，在加拿大，如果没有人举报，我认为一个没有许可的印度人可能在餐馆里工作整整一年，也不会被发现。 STEVE：真的吗？ ALEX：是的。这里有很多印度人，而警察由政府支付高工资，人数却不算多，所以这种现象会继续存在。
Alex: Some of these people work in restaurants or factories and are paid in cash, so they do not pay tax. Even if a legal job pays 15 to 18 Canadian dollars an hour while a cash job pays only 10 to 12, they may still accept it because the amount is far higher than what they could earn in India. What they make in one day in Canada might equal one month, three months, or even half a year of income in India. From their perspective, the arrangement is still worthwhile. The strength of policy enforcement also differs significantly between Canada and China. In China, if an Indian person were seen working in a restaurant, the local police might notice within a day or two and directly check whether that person held a tourist visa or a work permit. In Canada, however, I believe an Indian person without a permit could work in a restaurant for an entire year without being discovered if nobody reported it. Steven: Really? Alex: Yes. There are many Indian people here, while the police are well paid by the government, but not especially numerous, so the situation continues.
07 / 28
ALEX：美国也有类似争论。美国移民与海关执法局使用权力把许多非法移民遣送出境，而这些行动在美国引发了大量争议。但我认为，这种现象在中国不会存在，原因仍然是宣传造成的社会摩擦。如果人们看到一名印度人在餐馆工作，他们自己就可能怀疑对方是非法就业，并立刻报警。警方可能第二天就到餐馆检查他或她的签证情况。 STEVE：所以，中国对非法移民是零容忍。 ALEX：你可能认为这是一种威权社会结构，而这也可以被视为威权社会的一项“优势”。如果能够在移民与本国人之间取得平衡，那么对本国人来说，只要你不反对中国共产党，也不声称要夺取中央政府的权力，政府可能会容忍你的其他活动。但对于外来者，威权制度会以最高效率发挥作用。因此，中国没有同样的移民问题。
Alex: A similar debate exists in the United States. US Immigration and Customs Enforcement uses its authority to deport many undocumented immigrants, and those actions create a great deal of controversy. I do not think the same phenomenon would exist in China, however, because propaganda shapes how people respond. If someone saw an Indian person working in a restaurant, that person might immediately suspect illegal employment and report it to the police. The police could arrive the next day to examine the worker’s visa status. Steven: So China has zero tolerance for illegal immigration. Alex: You might regard that as an authoritarian social structure, and it could also be described as one of the “advantages” of such a system. If a balance can be achieved between immigrants and native residents, then, for citizens, authoritarianism may mean that the government tolerates most activities as long as you do not oppose the Chinese Communist Party or say that you intend to take power from the central government. With outsiders, however, the authoritarian system operates at maximum efficiency. That is why China does not have the same immigration problem.
08 / 28
ALEX：日本是另一个极端例子。人们可能觉得日本人非常友善、礼貌，但这并不完全代表真实情况。大约四五十年前，很多来自非洲的移民非法进入日本。日本政府的政策是，在一周之内把这些人全部集中到营地，再用飞机把他们从日本送回非洲。日本还与某个非洲国家进行谈判——我已经记不清是哪一个国家——并向其支付了很多钱，金额可能超过3亿美元。据说，他们一次就在一周内直接遣返了约4万名非洲非法移民。他们用非常强硬的威权手段解决了这个问题。你大概很难想象英国政府在一周内使用船只或飞机，把所有非法移民都送出英国。 STEVE：实际上，英国的一些极右翼政党已经提出过类似主张，因为移民目前是一个非常热门的议题。对许多英国选民而言，移民甚至是唯一重要的问题。
Alex: Japan is another extreme example. People may think that the Japanese are always very kind and polite, but that is not the whole reality. Around forty or fifty years ago, many African migrants allegedly entered Japan illegally. The Japanese government’s policy was to gather them all into camps within one week and then fly them from Japan back to Africa. Japan also negotiated with an African country—I no longer remember which one—and paid it a large sum, perhaps more than 300 million dollars. According to the account I heard, roughly 40,000 undocumented African migrants were deported in a single operation within one week. The government used extremely forceful, authoritarian methods to solve the problem. You probably cannot imagine the British government using ships or aircraft to remove every undocumented immigrant from the UK within one week. Steven: Actually, some far-right parties in this country have proposed something similar, because immigration is such a prominent issue at the moment. For many UK voters, it is almost the only issue that matters.
09 / 28
STEVE：这些人可以被称为“单一议题选民”，因为对他们来说，移民问题排在第一位，其他事情都不重要。一些希望在下次大选中胜出的极右翼政党提出承诺，要把所有非法移民集中起来，再送往萨尔瓦多等地。他们的说法受到特朗普做法的启发；据报道，特朗普把许多被拘留的非法移民送到了萨尔瓦多的监狱。因此，这类行动已经在发生，也已经成为英国政党的主张。 ALEX：所以我认为，问题的根本原因不只在社会或移民本身，还在于一个族群或国家是否希望保持所谓的族裔“纯粹性”。中国人和日本人可能把移民看成对汉族或本民族的侵入，因此无法容忍。德国似乎也仍然存在类似观念。你会发现，人们对来自非洲的难民与来自乌克兰的难民持有完全不同的态度，因为他们可能认为乌克兰人与自己在族裔上更接近。
Steven: Such people can be described as single-issue voters because immigration is their highest priority and almost nothing else matters. Some far-right parties hoping to win the next general election have promised to gather up all undocumented immigrants and send them to places such as El Salvador. Their proposal is influenced by Trump’s actions; he has reportedly sent many detained undocumented immigrants to prisons in El Salvador. So this approach is already being used elsewhere and has become a political promise in Britain. Alex: That is why I believe the root cause is not only social conditions or immigration itself. It is also whether an ethnic group or nation wants to preserve what it sees as ethnic “purity.” Some Chinese and Japanese people may regard immigrants as an intrusion into the Han population or their own ethnic group, so they cannot tolerate the situation. Similar ideas also seem to persist in Germany. You can see completely different attitudes toward refugees from Africa and refugees from Ukraine, perhaps because Ukrainians are viewed as having a closer ethnic relationship with local people.
10 / 28
ALEX：当人们认为来自非洲的黑人与自己不属于同一族群时，就可能采取不同的立场和行动。英国的情况更复杂，因为英国以及法国都强调人权、人的权利、民主精神和国家价值。如果他们采用极端政策，可能会破坏自己坚持了几十年、甚至几百年的根本信念。但问题是，他们是否能接受最终的人口变化，例如担心法国会被黑人“占据”。一个有意思的现象是世界杯。法国队之所以表现出色，是因为很多法国球员有前殖民地背景。有些非洲国家队里有白人球员，而法国队里有许多黑人球员。 STEVE：英国国家队也类似。我们国家队的大多数球员并非白人，而是黑人，其中许多人显然是移民的后代。不过，法国确实是最极端的例子。法国队几乎全是非白人球员，只有少数白人。
Alex: When people believe that Black Africans do not belong to the same ethnic group as they do, they may adopt different attitudes and actions. The situation in the UK is more complicated because Britain and France both emphasize human rights, individual rights, democratic principles, and national values. If they used extreme policies, they might damage beliefs they have upheld for decades or even centuries. The question is whether they can tolerate the eventual demographic change—for example, the fear that France might be “occupied” by Black people. The World Cup provides an interesting image. France has performed well, in part, because many of Its players have backgrounds tied to former colonies. Some African national teams include white players, while the French team includes many Black players. Steven: The national team is similar. Most of our players are not white; many are Black and are obviously descendants of immigrants who came to this country. France is certainly the most extreme example, though. Almost the entire French team is non-white, with only a few white players here and there.
11 / 28
ALEX：因此有一个玩笑说，大约一百年前，法国人用枪占领非洲；现在，非洲人也在用另一种方式“占领”法国。 STEVE：确实，这种说法很尖锐。 ALEX：谈到这里，我觉得女性的角色也非常有意思。我不评价其他国家，只以中国为例。许多中国女性愿意与外国人结婚。她们或许对黑人接受度稍低，但通常能接受白人、法国人、西班牙人或中东人。相比之下，很多中国男性可能只愿意接受中国女性，也可能认为中国女性与外国人结婚的比例过高。有些男性也许能接受中东女性，但总体而言，我认为中国女性对不同背景伴侣的接受范围更广。
Alex: This has produced a joke: about a hundred years ago, the French used guns to occupy Africa, whereas now Africans are “occupying” France in a different way. Steven: Yes, it is a striking way of putting it. Alex: This also makes me think that the role of women is extremely interesting. I will not judge other countries; I will use China as my example. Many Chinese women are willing to marry foreigners. They may be somewhat less accepting of Black men, but they are often open to white men, French or Spanish men, and people from the Middle East. By contrast, many Chinese men may be willing to marry only Chinese women and may feel that the proportion of Chinese women marrying foreigners is too high. Some may accept women from the Middle East, but overall I think Chinese women are open to partners from a wider range of backgrounds.
12 / 28
STEVE：其实，我认为这并不只发生在中国。类似的情况或许在世界各国都能看到。 ALEX：对，我想英国和法国也一样。女性是否接受来自非洲的男性，会影响这些人能否在当地建立家庭。 ALEX：对来自非洲的黑人男性来说，如果他们相信英国或法国女性会接受自己，就会觉得可以在当地建立家庭，因此更愿意移民欧洲。可是，如果他们考虑移民中国，却认为中国女性不接受黑人、只喜欢白人，他们就可能觉得自己无法在中国生活，并失去移民的动力。非洲黑人男性移民欧洲时，不会有同样的担忧，因为他们可能相信自己能找到妻子，与当地女性结婚，而法国女性也会喜欢非洲男性，所以他们不会把成家视为问题。
Steven: Actually, I do not think this occurs only in China. A similar pattern could probably be found in countries throughout the world. Alex: Yes, I think the same may be true in the UK and France. Whether local women accept African men affects whether those men can form families there. Alex: For Black men from Africa, believing that women in Britain or France will accept them may make them feel that they can build a family there, which gives them a stronger incentive to migrate to Europe. If they consider moving to China but believe that Chinese women do not accept Black men and prefer only white men, they may conclude that living in China is impossible and lose their incentive to immigrate. Black African men moving to Europe may not have the same concerns. They may believe they can find wives, marry local women, and that French women will be attracted to African men, so starting a family will not be a problem.
13 / 28
STEVE：我理解你的意思，也确实见过类似情况。不过，我有时会怀疑，移民是否把这件事想得比现实更容易。他们真正搬到这些国家后，也许很难找到愿意接受自己的伴侣，难度可能超过原先的预期。至少在英国，我听说世界上有一种不太令人舒服的看法，认为英国女性比较“随便”，外国男性会很容易找到妻子。 STEVE：一些人也许会想：“女人会主动来找我，我甚至不用寻找。”但我认为现实并不是这样。我猜不少人搬到英国后，发现找到愿意接受自己的伴侣比预想更困难。这个问题如果能得到实际调查，应该会很有意思。
Steven: I understand what you mean, and I have seen similar situations myself. However, I sometimes wonder whether migrants imagine this will be easier than it really is. Once they move to these countries, they may struggle to find partners who accept them, and the difficulty could exceed their expectations. In Britain, there is an unpleasant international stereotype that British women are “easy,” so foreign men assume they will quickly find wives. Steven: Some men may imagine, “Women will come to me; I will not even need to look for them.” I do not think that is the reality. I suspect that many people arrive in Britain and discover that finding a partner who accepts them is more difficult than expected. It would be interesting to investigate that question properly.
14 / 28
ALEX：完全同意。有时你会觉得历史像一个循环。一百年前，白人利用现代工具和武器占领非洲，教当地人自己的语言和文化，并试图通过现代教育，把他们眼中的“粗野之人”变成“文明人”。殖民者当时大概想不到，几十年或上百年后，正因为语言联系，许多非洲人会说英语或法语，并来到从前的宗主国，与当地人结婚。比如，法国过去在非洲拥有许多殖民地，这些地方的人能够说很好的法语。后来，他们只需买一张机票，一夜之间就能从非洲抵达法国，在酒吧喝酒、遇见当地法国女性，并可能相爱、成为伴侣。
Alex: I completely agree. Sometimes history seems to move in a circle. A hundred years ago, white people used modern tools and weapons to occupy Africa. They taught local people their languages and cultures and tried, through modern education, to transform those they regarded as “uncivilized” into “civilized” people. The colonizers probably could not have imagined that, decades or a century later, those linguistic connections would allow many Africans who speak or French to travel to the former colonial powers and marry local people. France, for example, once had many colonies in Africa, where people learned excellent French. Later, they could simply buy a plane ticket, travel from Africa to France overnight, have a drink in a bar, meet a local French woman, fall in love, and become a couple.
15 / 28
ALEX：通过这样的关系，他们还可能取得法国、英国、加拿大或美国的公民身份。因此，这似乎形成了一个历史循环。如果几百年前白人没有占领那些国家，也没有打算去“教化”当地所谓的原始人，今天的这些事情或许就不会发生。 STEVE：是的。如果没有那段历史，语言障碍会非常大。 ALEX：也许语言是最大的障碍。 STEVE：对一个人来说，是否掌握语言，可能是加入一个新社会时最重要的条件。 ALEX：印度的情况既不同，又有些相似。印度也曾是英国的殖民地，英国教育体系在印度发挥了非常重要的作用。现在，由于印度缺少就业机会，社会发展程度也较低，我认为印度甚至通过国家战略推动本国人口向海外移民。印度人在这个过程中还拥有语言优势。正如你以前提到的，中国政府却似乎想限制更多人学习和使用英语。
Alex: Through such relationships, they may also obtain citizenship in France, the UK, Canada, or the United States. In that sense, history seems to form a cycle. If white people had not occupied those countries several centuries ago and had not intended to “civilize” the people they regarded as primitive, perhaps these developments would not be happening today. Steven: That is true. Without that history, the language barrier would be enormous. Alex: Language may be the greatest barrier of all. Steven: Whether someone knows the language is probably the most important factor when trying to join a new society. Alex: India presents a different but somewhat similar situation. India was also colonized by Britain, and the British educational system played a very important role there. Today, because India has too few employment opportunities and is less developed, I believe the country even uses national strategies to encourage its people to migrate abroad. Indian people also have the advantage of language. As you mentioned before, the Chinese government, by contrast, seems to want to limit the number of people who learn and speak .
16 / 28
ALEX：中国政府希望把人力资源留在国内，而不是让这些人离开。中国拥有相对先进的制造业结构和制造体系，因此人力资源对政府非常重要。不过，你也不必太担心，因为中国的精英以及大城市居民中，很多人并不是一定要永久离开中国，而是想拥有一个“B计划”。 STEVE：B计划？ ALEX：对。如果我获得加拿大永久居民身份，或者拿到美国绿卡，就意味着我有了B计划。将来如果发生不好的事情，我可以借助这个备用选择，避开可能在中国出现的限制。这就是计划。 STEVE：我明白了。那么，他们预计会发生什么情况，以至于需要这个B计划？他们担心什么事情可能出问题？
Alex: The Chinese government wants to keep its human resources inside the country rather than allow them to leave. China has a relatively advanced manufacturing structure and production system, so human resources are extremely important to the government. Still, you do not need to worry too much, because many members of the Chinese elite and many residents of large cities do not necessarily want to leave China permanently. What they want is a “Plan B.” Steven: A Plan B? Alex: Yes. If I obtain permanent residence in Canada or a US green card, that means I have a Plan B. If something bad happens in the future, I can use that alternative to avoid restrictions that might arise in China. That is the idea. Steven: I see. What kind of situation do they expect that would make this Plan B necessary? What are they anticipating might go wrong?
17 / 28
ALEX：这是个非常好的问题。人们会评估当前形势，并估算未来可能出现的损害。最极端的事情在疫情期间已经发生过，而我们可以把那段经历当作例子。疫情之后，许多人离开中国移民海外，其中也包括我。 ALEX：那段经历让人意识到，国家权力可能在没有合理解释的情况下，把个人限制在某个地方。因此，我想建立自己的B计划。我辞掉工作，申请了硕士课程，希望能长期留在这里；也许几年后，我会取得加拿大永久居民身份。至于未来，我更希望一年中有半年住在中国，另半年住在加拿大。比如，冬天回中国，夏天再回加拿大。
Alex: That is a very good question. People assess the current situation and estimate potential future damage. The most extreme events occurred during the pandemic, and we can use that period as an example. After the pandemic, many people left China, including me. Alex: That experience showed people that state power could confine an individual to one place without a reasonable explanation. As a result, I wanted to create my own Plan B. I quit my job and applied for a master’s programme so that I could remain here for the long term. Perhaps after several years, I will obtain permanent resident status in Canada. In the future, I would prefer to spend half of each year in China and the other half in Canada—for example, returning to China in winter and coming back to Canada in summer.
18 / 28
ALEX：对于我的孩子，我认为他们将来会成为加拿大公民。因为我们已经把钱转移到中国之外，所以他们不必担心资产完全留在中国的风险。同时，我也希望他们有更多机会跟我们回中国生活。他们可以在中国接受部分早期教育，学会说，享受丰富的美食和美丽的风景，也能生活在与自己有相同族裔背景的人群之中。这些都会为他们带来便利。这种B计划也代表了中国许多中年人的想法。
Alex: As for my children, I think they will become Canadian citizens. Because we have already moved our money outside China, they will not need to worry about the risks of keeping all their assets there. At the same time, I want them to have more opportunities to return to China with us. They could receive some early education there, learn to speak Chinese, enjoy the food and scenery, and live among people who share their ethnic background. All of those things would be convenient for them. This Plan B also reflects the thinking of many middle-aged people in China.
19 / 28
ALEX：他们认为加拿大是一个不错的选择，因为至少从表面上看，加拿大人很友善，社会也不算极端。加拿大不像美国那样存在严重的枪支问题，也没有那么强的攻击性。人们愿意留在加拿大，并不一定意味着他们想与本地社会建立非常紧密的关系。只要社会制度能够保证我们的合法身份、保险、医疗保障以及其他基本权益，就已经足够了。这并不意味着我们必须完全接受加拿大文化。加拿大的制度有时效率不高，这里的人有时也显得保守、固执，但这并不重要。对我来说，它就是一个可以生活的地方。我也许会在这里拥有一套公寓或一栋房子，同时在中国和加拿大都有住处，这就可以了。我相信，如果经济条件允许，中国也许有20%到30%的人会考虑类似计划，只是各自选择的国家不同。
Alex: They see Canada as a good option because, at least on the surface, Canadians are friendly and the society is not too extreme. Canada does not have the same severe gun problem or aggressive atmosphere as the United States. People may want to remain in Canada, but that does not necessarily mean they want an especially close relationship with local society. It is enough if the social system guarantees our legal status, insurance, medical coverage, and other basic protections. That does not mean we must completely accept Canadian culture. The system is sometimes inefficient, and people here can occasionally seem conservative or stubborn, but that does not matter. For me, it is simply a place where I can live. Perhaps I will own an apartment or house here and maintain homes in both China and Canada. That would be sufficient. I believe that, if their finances allow it, perhaps 20 to 30 percent of people in China would consider a similar plan, although they might choose different countries.
20 / 28
ALEX：英国太小，存在许多社会问题和争论，社会结构也很复杂。相比之下，加拿大没有那么多极端限制或局面，因此成为很多中国人的理想选择。 STEVE：这很有意思。你之前谈到中国房地产市场长期缓慢下跌。那么，现在是否是去中国买房的好时机？价格会在不久后的某个时间重新上涨，还是人们预计在可见的未来会一直下降？英国的情况正好相反。因为住房供应不足，我们的房价已经上涨了很长时间，如今高得荒唐。中国的情况会怎样？
Alex: The UK is too small and has many social problems and arguments. Its social structure is also complicated. Canada, by comparison, has fewer extreme restrictions or situations, so it has become an attractive choice for many Chinese people. Steven: That is interesting. You mentioned earlier that China’s real-estate market has been declining slowly for a long time. Does that mean this is a good time to buy property in China? Will prices begin rising again soon, or do people expect them to continue falling for the foreseeable future? The situation is the exact opposite in the UK. Because of the shortage of housing supply, our property market has risen for a very long time, and prices have become ridiculous. What do you think will happen in China?
21 / 28
ALEX：我认为，在可以预见的未来，也就是未来五到十年，中国房地产价格不会上涨。形势已经改变，因为中国的新生儿越来越少，这与印度完全不同。中国人口的平均年龄接近40岁，而印度大约是30岁。 STEVE：真的吗？ ALEX：对。我看不到任何足以再次推动中国房价上涨的力量。 ALEX：因此，将来中国人可能会把更多钱花在海外生活、环球旅行或奢侈品等方面，而不会再次大量投资房地产。 STEVE：这很令人惊讶。我一直认为上海和北京是非常理想的城市，只要有能力负担，应该很适合买房。现在看来，这完全是我的误解；当地房地产市场实际上并不好，这一点让我非常意外，我以前完全不知道。
Alex: I do not think Chinese property prices will rise in the foreseeable future—that is, over the next five to ten years. The situation has changed because fewer babies are being born in China, unlike in India. The average age in China is approaching forty, while India’s is about thirty. Steven: Really? Alex: Yes. I cannot identify any force strong enough to push Chinese property prices upward again. Alex: In the future, Chinese people may therefore spend more money on living abroad, travelling around the world, or buying luxury goods. I do not think they will invest heavily in real estate again. Steven: That is surprising. I have always viewed Shanghai and Beijing as highly desirable cities where buying property would be attractive if you could afford it. It seems that this was a complete misconception on my part, and that the property market there is actually weak. I had no idea, so that is remarkable to hear.
22 / 28
ALEX：从个人角度看，你不必考虑房价是否会上涨，而应当先考虑自己想选择什么样的生活方式。如果你喜欢在两个国家之间生活，可以选择中国和英国。只要政策允许外国人购买，你可以在上海买一套价格不太高的老公寓，同时住在英国。我的中国—加拿大生活模式也是同样的道理。房屋不一定是投资，它也可以只是支撑双国生活方式的住所。 STEVE：我明白了。 ALEX：另一个问题是，中国最富有的人也在建立B计划。许多人已经把资金转移到海外。 ALEX：新加坡是他们向往的目的地之一。也有一些人把钱转到英国，但可怕的是，英国政府也曾没收过一些人的资金。 STEVE：我听说过这种情况。
Alex: From a personal perspective, you do not need to focus on whether property prices will rise. You should first consider the lifestyle you want. If you prefer to live between two countries, you could choose China and the UK. If policy allows foreigners to buy, you could purchase an older, relatively inexpensive apartment in Shanghai while also living in Britain. My proposed China–Canada lifestyle follows the same principle. A home does not have to be an investment; it can simply support a two-country way of life. Steven: I understand. Alex: Another issue is that China’s wealthiest people are also creating Plan Bs. Many have already moved money overseas. Alex: Singapore is one of their preferred destinations. Some people have also transferred money to the UK, but the frightening thing is that the British government has confiscated certain people’s funds. Steven: I have heard about cases like that.
23 / 28
ALEX：这对中国富人来说是非常糟糕的消息，因为他们担心政府也许有一天会以某种理由没收他们的财富。因此，他们首先会选择新加坡；如果资金更多，还可能把钱转到开曼群岛等地。他们认为加拿大、美国和英国都不够安全，因为这些国家之间有相互配合的法律制度，也可能出于政治原因采取行动，所以富人无法确信自己能永久保有那些资金。香港也不安全，因为它与中国处于同一体系内；日本同样可能因为中日关系而存在风险。他们担心，日本政府有一天也可能没收中国富人的财富。不过，他们仍会在日本买房，很多富人把日本房产当作B计划或C计划的一部分。这是一种全球资产安排。 ALEX：由于这些原因，富人不会把太多钱留在中国。最近，中国政府还出台了一项新规定：如果你想把钱从中国转到其他国家，就要向政府缴纳大约20%的税。
Alex: This is terrible news for wealthy Chinese people because they worry that, one day, a government might use some justification to seize their assets. Their first choice is therefore Singapore. If they have even more money, they may transfer it to places such as the Cayman Islands. They consider Canada, the United States, and the UK insufficiently safe because those countries have interconnected legal systems and may also act for political reasons. Wealthy people, therefore, cannot be certain that they will retain ownership of their money indefinitely. Hong Kong is not safe either, because it belongs to the same system as China. Japan may also be risky todue of its relationship with China. They fear that the Japanese government could one day confiscate the wealth of rich Chinese residents. Nevertheless, many still buy houses in Japan as part of a Plan B or Plan C. It is a global arrangement of wealth. Alex: For those reasons, wealthy people will not leave much money in China. Recently, the Chinese government also introduced a new rule: if you want to move money from China to another country, you must pay the government a tax of about 20 percent.
24 / 28
STEVE：20%？ ALEX：对。钱留在中国就不征这笔税，但如果转出国，政府就会收取20%。 STEVE：这与美国有些相似。美国政府也会对把资金或收入移到国外的富人征税。我以前听说过美国相当严格的税法。我在海外不同地方工作时，认识过几位美国教师。英国人移居海外后，通常不再需要向英国缴税，也不再是英国纳税人；我不清楚中国的具体情况。但美国人即使移居海外，仍然可能需要向美国纳税，同时当然还要在居住国缴税。扣除相关减免之后，他们也可能面临两地税务负担。对于收入本来就不高的教师，这会非常困难。
Steven: Twenty percent? Alex: Yes. If you keep the money in China, that particular tax is not charged, but if you transfer it abroad, the government takes 20 percent. Steven: That sounds somewhat similar to the United States. The US government also taxes wealthy people who move money or income outside the country. I have heard about some quite strict American tax laws. When I worked abroad in various places, I knew several American Stevens. British people who move overseas generally no longer pay UK tax because they are no longer UK taxpayers; I do not know exactly how the Chinese system works. Americans, however, may still have to pay US tax after moving abroad, while also paying tax in their country of residence. Even after the relevant deductions, they may still face tax obligations in two jurisdictions. That can be particularly difficult for lower-paid Stevens who are not earning very much in the first place.
25 / 28
ALEX：与英国相比，爱尔兰的税收政策更优惠，对吗？因此，一些中国人更愿意把钱存在爱尔兰，而不是英国。 STEVE：对。现在甚至有英国人为了避开同样严苛的税负而移居爱尔兰，很多企业也把总部迁到都柏林等城市。爱尔兰未必能被称为真正的“避税天堂”，但可以肯定，它比英国更有税务吸引力。顺便问一下，我在网上看到中国目前正遭遇一场大风暴，好像是台风。你知道这场台风有多严重吗？ ALEX：我注意到了，上海尤其受到影响。这也许与全球极端天气有关。今天早上，上海机场大约有接近一千架次航班被取消。 STEVE：一千架次？ ALEX：对，因为上海受到了台风影响。 STEVE：那么，上海现在一定有很多不开心的旅客，许多人的出行计划也被打乱了。
Alex: Compared with the UK, Ireland has more favourable tax policies, doesn’t it? For that reason, some Chinese people would rather deposit their money in Ireland than in Britain. Steven: Yes. Some British people are now even moving to Ireland to avoid the same kind of heavy taxation, and many businesses have relocated their headquarters to Dublin and other Irish cities. Ireland may not be a true tax haven, but it is certainly more tax-friendly than the UK. By the way, I read online that a major storm is affecting China at the moment—perhaps a typhoon. Do you know how serious it is? Alex: I noticed it, especially in Shanghai. It may be connected to the extreme weather occurring around the world. This morning, close to one thousand flights were cancelled at Shanghai’s airports. Steven: One thousand flights? Alex: Yes, because of the typhoon affecting Shanghai. Steven: There must be many unhappy travellers there at the moment, with a lot of travel plans disrupted.
26 / 28
ALEX：是的。 STEVE：我们的时间只剩一分钟左右。我本来还有最后一个问题，但刚才突然忘了……想起来了。我们刚才一直在谈B计划，那么你的B计划具体是什么？你是打算在加拿大和中国各有一个住处吗？这就是你未来的大致计划，还是还有其他安排？ ALEX：现在就规划所有细节还太早，不过整体框架差不多。我认为自己大部分时间会住在加拿大，因为这里的空气好、空气清新，水质也好。我注意到一个很有意思的现象：很多生活在中国的人都有咳嗽问题。 STEVE：是吗？ ALEX：我以前住在中国时也常常咳嗽，但两年前离开中国以后，这个问题再也没有出现过。我认为这肯定与空气污染有关。
Alex: Yes. Steven: We have only about a minute left. I had one final question, but it briefly slipped my mind… Now I remember. We have been discussing Plan Bs, so what exactly is your Plan B? Are you aiming to have one home in Canada and another in China? Is that the general shape of your future plan, or do you have something else in mind? Alex: It is too early for me to plan every detail, but the broad structure is similar to what we have discussed. I think I would spend most of my time in Canada because the air is good and fresh, and the water is clean. I have noticed something interesting: many people in China seem to have coughing problems. Steven: Really? Alex: When I lived in China, I also coughed frequently. However, after I left China two years ago, the problem never returned. I think it must have been connected to air pollution.
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STEVE：应该就是空气污染。 ALEX：尤其是中国北方，因为那里有化工厂以及其他各种工业设施。 ALEX：中国南方以及上海的情况会好一些。有些中国人认为，如果住在海南岛或广州，就不会遇到同样的问题；但在北方，污染对健康的影响非常明显。 STEVE：我唯一一次真正经历严重空气污染，是在蒙古。蒙古首都大概是地球上污染最严重的首都之一，甚至可能就是最严重的。我非常明显地感受到它对健康的影响。我一直咳嗽，后来甚至患上了肺炎，情况相当严重；我还出现了各种健康问题。我确信，这些问题与持续吸入受污染的空气直接相关。因此，我今后非常想避开类似环境。
Steven: It certainly sounds like air pollution. Alex: The issue is particularly serious in northern China because of chemical factories and many other kinds of industrial facilities. Alex: Conditions are better in southern China and in Shanghai. Some Chinese people believe that, if you live on Hainan Island or in Guangzhou, you will not experience the same problem. In northern China, however, the health effects of pollution are very clear. Steven: My only experience of truly severe air pollution was in Mongolia. Its capital is probably one of the most polluted capital cities on Earth—perhaps even the most polluted—and I clearly noticed the effect on my health. I had a persistent cough and eventually developed pneumonia, which was quite serious. I experienced many other health problems as well, and I am convinced they were directly related to constantly breathing polluted air. I am therefore desperate to avoid a similar environment in the future.
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ALEX：那么，在中国生活的话，上海、杭州和广州会是更好的选择。 STEVE：如果我以后真的打算搬到中国，我会记住这些城市，避开中国北方。我不想再次得肺炎，真的希望避免那种经历。 ALEX：北京也不适合，那里太冷，而且污染太严重。 STEVE：明白了。好了，Alex，再次非常感谢你抽出时间参加今天的对话。 ALEX：也非常感谢你。 STEVE：不客气。我们下节课再见。 ALEX：下次见，再见。 STEVE：保重，再见。
Alex: In that case, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou would be better choices if you wanted to live in China. Steven: If I ever decide to move to China, I will remember those cities and avoid the north. I do not want to develop pneumonia again; I truly want to avoid that experience. Alex: Beijing would not be a good choice either. It is too cold and too polluted. Steven: I understand. All right, Alex, thank you very much again for taking the time to speak with me today. Alex: Thank you very much as well. Steven: You’re welcome. I’ll see you in our next class. Alex: See you next time. Goodbye. Steven: Take care. Bye-bye.
— END OF CONVERSATION —
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